1. Customs core data for the first quarter of 2019
According to customs statistics, the total value of China’s imports and exports in the first quarter of this year was 7.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7% over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 3.77 trillion yuan, up 6.7%; imports were 3.24 trillion yuan, up 0.3%; trade surplus was 529.67 billion yuan, up 75.2%; in dollar terms, in the first quarter, China’s total import and export value was 1.03 trillion US dollars, down 1.5%. Among them, exports were 551.76 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.4%; imports were 475.45 billion US dollars, down 4.8%; trade surplus was 76.31 billion US dollars, an increase of 70.6%.
2. The 7 major characteristics of foreign trade development in the first quarter summarized by the General Administration of Customs
1) In the month of March, the growth rate of imports and exports was relatively fast, and exports showed double-digit growth.
In March, China’s import and export of 2.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.6%, effectively boosted the overall growth rate of foreign trade in the first quarter. Among them, exports were 1.34 trillion yuan, a substantial increase of 21.3%, and imports were 1.12 trillion yuan, down 1.8%. In dollar terms, in March, China’s total import and export value was 364.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.1%. Of this total, exports were US$198.67 billion, up 14.2%; imports were US$166.03 billion, down 7.6%.
2) Import and export of general trade increased and the proportion increased.
In the first quarter, China’s general trade import and export was 4.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 6%, accounting for 59.6% of China’s total import and export value, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the same period of last year. The structure of trade mode continued to optimize. Among them, exports were 2.2 trillion yuan, up 11.7%; imports were 1.97 trillion yuan, up 0.3%.
3) Increase in import and export volume of major trading partners such as the EU, ASEAN and Japan.
In the first quarter, China’s total import and export value to the EU was 1.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.5%, accounting for 15.8% of China’s total foreign trade. The total trade value between China and ASEAN was 934.55 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%, accounting for 13.3%. In the same period, the total trade volume between China and the United States was 815.86 billion yuan, down 11%, accounting for 11.6%. The total trade value between China and Japan was 505.55 billion yuan, up 3.2%, accounting for 7.2%.
4) It is better for the import and export growth rate of the countries along the “Belt and Road” than the whole.
In the first quarter, China’s total import and export of countries along the “Belt and Road” reached 2 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.8%, which was 4.1 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of foreign trade, accounting for 28.6% of China’s total foreign trade, and the proportion increased by 1.1 percentage points. Among them, imports and exports to Russia, Saudi Arabia and Egypt increased by 9.8%, 33.8% and 18.3% respectively. The potential of trade cooperation between China and the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative is being continuously released and has become a new driving force for China’s foreign trade development.
5) Increase in the proportion of private enterprise import and export growth.
In the first quarter, the import and export of private enterprises in China was 2.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9%, accounting for 40.6% of the total value, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the same period of last year. Among them, exports were 1.86 trillion yuan, up 13.8%, accounting for 49.3% of total exports; imports were 985.31 billion yuan, up 3.2%, accounting for 30.4% of total imports. In the same period, the import and export of foreign-invested enterprises was 2.89 trillion yuan, down 0.7%, accounting for 41.3%; the import and export of state-owned enterprises was 1.24 trillion yuan, up 1%, accounting for 17.7%.
6) The growth rate of import and export in the central and western regions and the northeast is higher than the overall growth rate of the country, and the regional development is more coordinated.
In the first quarter, the growth rate of foreign trade in the 12 provinces and the western provinces was 14.5%, which was 10.8% higher than the national growth rate; the growth rate of foreign trade in the six central provinces was 6.9%, which was 3.2% higher than the national growth rate; the growth rate of foreign trade in the three northeastern provinces was 5.1%. It is 1.4% higher than the national growth rate. In the same period, the import and export of foreign trade in the 10 provinces and cities in the eastern region increased by 2.3%, 1.4% lower than the national growth rate.
7) The export of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products increased simultaneously.
In the first quarter, China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 2.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.4%, accounting for 58.8% of China’s total export value. Among them, the export of portable computers increased by 8%, and the export of automobiles increased by 15.1%. In the same period, the total export of seven major labor-intensive products such as clothing and toys was 685.53 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5%, accounting for 18.2% of the total export value.
3. Twings’ 4 Major Points of Analysis
From the data published by the customs and the characteristics of the summary, we can summarize the following characteristics from the perspective of the international logistics and freight forwarding industry:
1) The trade war between China and the United States last year caused both sides to lose both sides, causing the volume of container transportation between China and the United States to fall.
Under Trump’s tariff pressure, products exported to the United States are rushing for shipment. This caused a significant increase in exports to the United States last year. These increments were originally products that could be exported to the United States this spring. This year, the two sides reached a temporary compromise, so the apparent decline in exports between China and the United States is also expected. So in the second half of last year, the freight rate of China’s Shanghai to the United States LA reached 2,500 USD and a 40HQ, but the current freight rate is less than half, even with the shipping company having reduced the positions and routes. In addition, the trade war with the United States has also turned many factories in China into developing other markets, such as ASEAN, the Belt and Road, and other countries and regions. It also led to an increase in the total import and export volume of these places.
2) The advancement of Ramadan in 2019 boosted Chinas total exports in the first quarter
In 2019, the global Muslim Ramadan was ahead of schedule, and the export volume in March was partially increased. This year’s Ramadan begins on May 5. As a result, a large number of containers were shipped before the end of March, so that they could go to the port of destination and complete customs clearance before Ramadan. There are many Muslim populations and countries. If you look at shipping routes, China to the Middle East, to West Africa, to North Africa, and to Red Sea, there are a large number of Muslim countries and ports. Please refer to our webpage of shipping routes for details. Obviously, before March 31, especially from March 15 to 31, the positions and prices of the Middle East and other routes soared. It is difficult to reserve a position when the market is tight.
3) Increased labor costs caused more labor-intensive products to be transferred to the central and western regions for production
With the rapid development of the eastern coastal areas, per capita GDP has reached the income level of moderately developed countries, and even better. This will inevitably lead to an increase in the cost of food, clothing and housing. In particular, real estate and education spending are getting higher and higher, so the price of foreign trade products is getting higher and higher. The vast mainland regions, such as Sichuan, Jiangxi and Hebei, have abundant labor resources and low costs. Coupled with the support of local governments and the development of transportation, the timeliness of export products in the vast mainland has been significantly improved. For example, the typical sea-rail combined transport, the river-sea combined transport speeds up the transportation speed, and also helps to well control the transportation cost. Therefore, many labor-intensive industries are gradually shifting to the mainland. The developed coastal areas have gradually begun to increase the technical content and technological content of their export products, and the vast number of home appliances and mobile phones have gradually opened up in foreign markets.
4) The Belt and Road Initiative is a national policy that will remain unchanged for a long time.
The Belt and Road policy will continue. Therefore, we must see this trend in international logistics, and participate in this policy as much as possible to find the right market segment.
