At the end of 2019, we will make the following forecast for the industry in 2020.           

1 More and more ship companies will introduce platform management

In 2019, Maersk launched SPOT platform services based on its own cost management and the demand of business development. The aim is to cut sales. At present, the results are remarkable. COSCO also has an e-commerce platform in China, and Hapag-Lloyd has launched a similar platform. In 2020, I expect more shipping companies to launch similar platform services.

2 Shipping company extends its business to freight forwarding service

Maersk judges that the business potential of traditional CY-CY is not great, and focuses on expanding the service chain rather than investing large ships. One of the focuses is to introduce the successful experience of spot into the traditional territory of freight forwarders. We expect Maersk to give full play to its advantages and provide more value-added services. For example, for customers who book cabin and trailer services through spot platform, Maersk can give priority to transferring import containers to service export business, instead of having to pick up containers at the yard.

3 Artificial intelligence will greatly promote logistics visualization

Logistics visualization is a new hot word. New technology development, especially the configuration of new high-tech containers of shipping companies, will make the routes and circulation of goods transportation more clear. This will help shippers master the latest logistic status, so as to improve efficiency and save costs.

4 IMO 2020 policy will greatly increase the cost pressure of shipping companies

No matter using fuel oil with low sulfur content or installing desulfurization tower, it will increase the operation cost of shipping companies. As we all know, shipping is an industry with a relatively high asset liability ratio, which is exacerbated by the IMO 2020 policy and put more pressure on some small shipping companies. Maybe in 2020, some shipping companies will be unable to bear the cost pressure, either withdraw from the market or be acquired. We hope that the situation similar to Hanjin will not happen.

5 Increased risk of cross-border E-commerce

 With the demonstration role of Amazon’s global expansion, the cross-border e-commerce is more and more popular. The demand for online shopping has increased significantly in many regions. As a result, the supporting logistic service market is also growing rapidly. However, in cross-border e-commerce logistic business, international transportation and destination import customs clearance are still lack of management, there are many gray areas, which will generate many uncontrollable risks. In 2020, the government may issue laws to regulate, which will also make the industry experience pain.

6 Sino US trade war will last for a long time

The U.S. strategy of containing China in the future will not end with Trump’s resignation. In 2020, the Sino US trade war will continue, which will greatly affect the container transportation between China and the United States.

7 Driverless trucks will be used more and more in the United States

 The technology of driverless trucks is ready be applied. As a big trading country, the road condition of the United States is very suitable for driverless driving. Considering the very high labor costs, it is likely that the automated driverless container truck delivery service will make great progress in 2020.

8 China’s international freight forwarding market will be divided

In the past, China’s international freight forwarding market was basically monopolized, and the price of shipping companies was controlled by a few large-volume cargo owners. Now with the development of e-commerce and digitalization, shipping companies have launched online platforms, which may break the price gap. The past basis of freight forwarding price will be greatly weakened, which may gradually be in line with the freight forwarding market of the developed countries. In other words, the freight forwarding market will become a competitive market with services, which will pose a great challenge to the management of freight forwarding companies.

9 Electronic bill of lading will appear

Paper bill of lading has a long history in international trade, but it will die out in 10 years. On the one hand, the advantage of paper bill of lading no longer exists; on the other hand, electronic encryption technology makes electronic bill of lading possible. In the coming future, delivery of cargo rights, customs clearance and other businesses can be carried out in the advanced system of electronic encryption. I’m wondering which shipping company will adopt electronic bill of lading first. Is it Maersk again?     

Above 9 points, let time to verify.